Thousands of Nigerians and other migrants living legally in the United Kingdom are waiting to hear how long it will take them to settle permanently. Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is due to set out her final decision on the government’s settlement reforms in a statement to the House of Commons on Monday, November 2, after a year of consultation and a fierce row inside the Labour Party.
According to the BBC, ITV News and The Telegraph, the government is still expected to make most migrants wait longer for indefinite leave to remain (ILR). However, care workers already in Britain are expected to be spared the harshest part of the original plan.
What was originally proposed
In November 2025, Mahmood proposed an “earned settlement” system. Under it, the standard qualifying period for ILR would double from five years to 10 for most migrants. Some lower-paid workers, including many on the health and care visa, could have waited up to 15 years.
ILR is the status that lets a person live, work and study in the UK without time limits. It also allows them to claim eligible benefits and is the usual step before applying for British citizenship.
The plans would apply to everyone who does not yet hold ILR, including people who arrived under the current five-year rules. That retrospective element caused the most anger. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner said it would “change the goalposts” for people who came in good faith, and some Labour MPs called it “un-British”.
What is expected on Monday
The BBC reported that the proposals are likely to be revised for most current social care workers. The Telegraph reported that care workers could be treated more like doctors and other public service staff. Under that approach, years spent working in specified public service jobs would cut the qualifying period, so a care worker might not face the 15-year wait.
The standard 10-year route for most other migrants is still expected to remain. Faster routes are expected for higher earners and some frontline workers. People who have claimed benefits, or who entered the UK illegally, could face longer waits.
The consultation drew more than 200,000 responses. Until new rules are formally laid before Parliament and take effect, the existing five-year route stays in place for most applicants. Details of transitional arrangements had not been confirmed ahead of the statement.
Why it matters to Nigerians in the UK
Nigerians have been among the largest groups granted UK health and care worker visas in recent years, alongside Indians and Zimbabweans. Many Nigerian nurses, carers and their families moved to Britain after the visa route was expanded in 2022 and planned their lives around reaching settlement after five years.
Home Office estimates cited by the BBC suggest about 196,000 care workers and their adult dependants could become eligible to settle between 2026 and 2030. The department puts the total number of people who could qualify in that period at about 1.6 million.
For these families, the length of the wait affects more than paperwork. It decides when they can access some public support, how much they keep paying in visa renewals and the Immigration Health Surcharge, and when they can apply for citizenship.
The political battle
The row has played out under new Prime Minister Andy Burnham, who said last week that settlement should be “a right to be earned” but did not commit to every part of Mahmood’s plan. More than 100 Labour backbenchers and several trade unions had said they would oppose the reforms in their original form.
The opposition has attacked the expected changes from the other side. Conservative shadow home secretary Chris Philp called it a “U-turn”, noting that Mahmood herself had warned in March that settlement for low-paid care workers could cost taxpayers about £10 billion. Reform UK, which wants to scrap ILR completely, said the government had backed down.
Supporters of migrants point to other figures. The Institute for Public Policy Research estimates that skilled workers and dependants due to settle under the current rules would make a net lifetime contribution of about £115 billion. Campaigners have also warned in an open letter that retrospective changes risk a repeat of the Windrush scandal.
What happens next
After Monday’s statement, the detailed rule changes will need to be laid before Parliament and will face scrutiny from MPs. Legal challenges are possible. Immigration law firms have noted that the current rules remain in force until a formal statement of changes is laid.
Nigerians in the UK who are close to their five-year mark should check official guidance on GOV.UK and seek advice from a regulated immigration adviser before making plans. Flashinfong will report the details once the Home Secretary’s full statement is published.
Sources: BBC News, ITV News, The Telegraph, The Guardian, UK Home Office.
