The Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, has identified climate change, irregular rainfall and the Super El Niño phenomenon as major factors contributing to Nigeria’s food insecurity challenges.
Kyari said increasingly unpredictable weather conditions and extended periods without rainfall were affecting agricultural activities, particularly in communities where farmers depend largely on rain-fed cultivation.
The minister made the remarks in a statement issued on Monday in response to concerns surrounding the October 2026 Cadre Harmonisé food security assessment, which projected that approximately 33.5 million Nigerians could experience severe food and nutrition insecurity between June and August 2027.
He maintained that the projected figure had been misunderstood in some quarters, explaining that the assessment was intended to provide an early warning of potential food shortages and nutritional difficulties rather than serve as a prediction of political or electoral outcomes.
According to Kyari, the Cadre Harmonisé is a regional food security monitoring framework developed by the Permanent Inter-State Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS), working with regional and technical partners.
The initiative receives support from international organisations and agencies, including the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), World Food Programme (WFP), FEWS NET, UNICEF and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC).
Kyari also drew attention to the assessment’s comparative figures, noting that the number of Nigerians projected to face severe food and nutrition insecurity declined from 34.8 million in the corresponding 2026 projection to 33.5 million in 2027.
Despite the reported reduction, he acknowledged that food insecurity remained a major national concern requiring sustained government intervention.
He outlined several measures being pursued by the Federal Government, including improved access to fertilisers and other agricultural inputs, increased mechanisation, expanded irrigation infrastructure and support for dry-season farming.
Other interventions, he said, include strengthening agricultural financing, improving storage capacity and investing in processing facilities to reduce post-harvest losses and improve the availability of food.
The minister further identified improved security in some farming communities as an important development in efforts to increase agricultural production.
He specifically cited Marte and Guzamala in Borno State, explaining that improved stability had enabled assessment teams to access the communities for the Cadre Harmonisé exercise after security challenges had previously prevented data collection in the areas.
Kyari also listed fertiliser distribution, local fertiliser blending initiatives, mechanisation partnerships, dry-season agricultural programmes and financing support through the Bank of Agriculture among the interventions aimed at strengthening food production.
He nevertheless acknowledged that the measures would not eliminate the country’s food insecurity challenges immediately, describing the problem as a longstanding structural issue that required sustained attention.
Explaining the influence of changing climatic conditions, the minister said:
“Climate change is the biggest culprit. Inconsistent rainfall and prolonged dry spells have made it difficult for our farmers to rely on rain-fed agriculture. The Super El Niño phenomenon has also disrupted weather patterns in many regions, affecting planting seasons and crop production.”
He also called for responsible interpretation of food security assessments, urging stakeholders to distinguish between technical findings and political commentary.
“We welcome scrutiny. We welcome constructive criticism. But there is a clear difference between legitimate political debate and deliberately misrepresenting a technical assessment for electoral propaganda,” he said.
The minister assured Nigerians that the government would continue to rely on food security data to guide interventions, strengthen agricultural production, support farmers and protect vulnerable households.
He added that the broader objective was to improve access to safe, nutritious and affordable food across the country.
Super El Niño refers to an exceptionally strong El Niño climate event associated with unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon can influence atmospheric circulation and alter weather patterns across different parts of the world, contributing to extreme temperatures, irregular rainfall, droughts and flooding.
Flashinfo reports that concerns over Nigeria’s food security outlook have intensified amid the combined pressures of climate variability, insecurity in farming communities, rising agricultural production costs and disruptions to food supply.
