Tinubu Government in 2026 — Three Years On, What Has Really Changed for Nigerians?
Three years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took office on May 29, 2023, Nigerians at home and in the diaspora are asking the same fundamental question: has life actually gotten better, or has the country simply exchanged one set of hardships for another?
The answer depends largely on who you ask and where they are standing. For the Tinubu administration, the third anniversary of the Renewed Hope agenda was an opportunity to make the case that difficult reforms have laid the foundation for long-term prosperity. For millions of ordinary Nigerians, however, the daily reality of rising prices, persistent insecurity, and squeezed purchasing power tells a more complicated story.
Here is a clear-eyed assessment of what has changed — and what has not — under the Tinubu government in 2026.
The Economy – Reform, Pain, and Slow Recovery
The defining economic act of the Tinubu presidency came on his very first day in office — the removal of petrol subsidies that had cost Nigeria as much as ₦18.4 billion per day and over ₦4 trillion in 2022 alone. The move was bold, necessary according to most economists, and immediately painful for ordinary Nigerians.
Petrol prices rose from below ₦200 per litre in 2023 to around ₦1,500 per litre in 2026 — a sevenfold increase that rippled through every corner of the Nigerian economy. Transportation costs surged. Food prices followed. Inflation accelerated sharply, eroding the purchasing power of millions of households and shrinking what remained of Nigeria’s middle class.
The government also unified the foreign exchange market, ending the multiple exchange rate system that had long distorted the economy and discouraged foreign investment. The naira depreciated significantly as a result, making imports more expensive and adding to inflationary pressure.
Three years on, the administration points to signs of recovery. Nigeria’s stock market capitalisation rose from ₦30 trillion in 2023 to ₦160 trillion in 2026 — a significant increase that reflects growing investor confidence. GDP growth was recorded across each quarter of 2025, and external reserves have shown improvement. The government argues that the pain of reform was unavoidable and that the alternative — continuing to spend billions daily on fuel subsidies while borrowing to fund basic government operations — would have led to an even deeper crisis.
Critics counter that the benefits of reform remain largely invisible to ordinary Nigerians, who continue to struggle with the cost of food, rent, transportation, and education while seeing little tangible improvement in services or infrastructure in their daily lives.
Fuel and the Cost of Living
The fuel subsidy removal remains the most felt policy of the Tinubu era. At ₦1,500 per litre, petrol costs have transformed daily life for most Nigerians. Private vehicle owners have cut back on driving. Commercial transport operators compete for fewer passengers with less money to spend. The cost of moving goods across the country has increased, pushing food prices higher in markets from Lagos to Kano.
The government has pointed to the Compressed Natural Gas initiative — encouraging commercial vehicle operators to convert from petrol to CNG – as a long-term solution to high transport costs. Progress on CNG conversions has been slower than hoped, and most Nigerians are yet to feel the benefit of this programme in their daily commutes.
Cooking gas prices have also risen sharply since 2023, placing pressure on households that had already switched from firewood to gas as part of Nigeria’s clean cooking agenda. Many families have been forced to revert to cheaper but less safe cooking methods.
Infrastructure – Projects Underway but Delivery Slow
One area where the Tinubu administration has been more active than its predecessor is infrastructure announcements. Major projects cited by the government include the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, the Sokoto-Badagry Super Highway, the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Road rehabilitation, and the East-West Road — a project that has been promised by successive Nigerian administrations for decades.
The Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway in particular has generated significant controversy, with concerns raised about land acquisition, community displacement, and the scale of borrowing required to finance the project. Supporters argue it will transform commerce and connectivity along Nigeria’s coastline. Critics question the priorities and costs involved.
Infrastructure delivery in Nigeria has historically lagged far behind announcement, and many Nigerians remain cautious about celebrating projects until they are completed and functional.
Security — The Most Troubling Challenge
Security remains the area of greatest concern under the Tinubu administration and the one where the gap between government rhetoric and citizen experience is widest. Tinubu campaigned in 2023 on a promise to secure lives and property. Three years later, many Nigerians believe the security situation has worsened rather than improved.
Kidnappings, banditry, and attacks on farming communities in the northwest and northcentral regions have continued. The continued activities of armed groups across multiple states have displaced communities and disrupted agricultural production — contributing to food insecurity that compounds the economic hardship already felt from inflation and subsidy removal.
The government has pointed to increased military deployments and security spending, as well as plans for deeper cooperation with regional and international partners. For the communities on the frontlines of insecurity, results have been insufficient.
Education and Social Investment
On education, the administration has expanded the Nigerian Education Loan Fund – known as NELFUND – which provides student loans to Nigerians in higher education institutions. This has been one of the more practically visible social programmes of the Tinubu era, offering a pathway for students from low-income families to access university education without the immediate burden of full fees.
Student loan uptake has grown since the programme launched, though concerns remain about the repayment structure and whether the loans are reaching the most vulnerable students effectively.
What Nigerians in the Diaspora Need to Know
For Nigerians living in the United States and across the diaspora, the Tinubu government’s policies have had direct consequences. The naira depreciation has affected the real value of remittances sent home — while the dollar amounts may be the same, the purchasing power of those naira received by family members has fluctuated significantly with the exchange rate. At the same time, the removal of the fuel subsidy and foreign exchange unification were largely welcomed by diaspora Nigerians and international investors as overdue corrections to policies that had been fiscally unsustainable.
The 2027 election is already casting a shadow over the second half of Tinubu’s first term. The president’s re-election prospects will depend largely on whether Nigerians feel that the sacrifices of the reform years were worth it — and whether tangible improvements in daily life become visible before voters go to the polls.
The Bottom Line
Three years into the Tinubu administration, Nigeria is in a period of genuine economic transition. The reforms implemented – painful as they have been – have addressed structural problems that previous governments avoided. Whether those reforms translate into improved living standards for ordinary Nigerians in time for the 2027 election remains the central political and economic question facing the country.
For now, most Nigerians are still waiting to feel the benefits that the government says are coming. The patience of ordinary citizens, already stretched thin by years of hardship, will be one of the defining factors of the remaining years of the Renewed Hope agenda.
FlashInfoNG will continue to provide balanced, factual coverage of Nigerian politics and governance for readers at home and in the diaspora.