The naira ended October weaker against the US dollar, breaking a three-month run of gains on the official market. Data from the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) show the local currency closed the month at about ₦1,346 per dollar, compared with ₦1,329.50 at the end of September, according to Nairametrics.
The ₦16.50 loss, roughly 1.2%, wipes out about two-fifths of the ground the naira gained between July and September, though the currency is still stronger than it was at the start of July.
A volatile month on the official market
October was not a straight-line decline. Nairametrics’ daily data show the naira trading in a narrow ₦1,329–₦1,336 band for much of the first three weeks, before slumping to about ₦1,370 per dollar on October 23, its weakest point of the month.
It then recovered steadily, closing at ₦1,365 on October 26, ₦1,349 on October 28 and ₦1,346 on October 29. The Telegraph Nigeria reported an early-trading NFEM rate of ₦1,346.86 on Friday, October 30, confirming that the currency held its late-month recovery.
Parallel market still at a premium
On the parallel market, dealers and bureau de change operators in Lagos, Abuja and Kano were quoting roughly ₦1,375 to buy and ₦1,385 to sell on Friday, The Telegraph reported. That leaves a gap of under ₦40 between official and street rates, far narrower than the wide spreads Nigerians saw before the foreign exchange reforms began in 2023.
A small spread is generally read by analysts as a sign of better dollar liquidity in the official window and reduced incentive for round-tripping between the two markets.
Reserves and growth outlook
The weaker month came despite a strong reserve position. Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) data reported by Nairametrics and other outlets this year show Nigeria’s external reserves at their highest levels in well over a decade, giving the apex bank more room to support the currency when needed. Nairametrics noted, however, that reserves alone do not explain the naira’s movements in October, and the outlet did not single out one cause for the dip.
The broader outlook remains cautiously positive. The World Bank recently raised its 2026 growth forecast for Nigeria to 4.3%, up from 4.0% in 2025, and projects 4.4% growth in both 2027 and 2028, according to Nairametrics.
What it means and what to watch
For importers, manufacturers and households, a weaker naira typically feeds into higher prices of imported goods and inputs over time, although a ₦16 move is modest compared with the shocks of recent years. Petrol and diesel prices, which are linked to the dollar, are also closely watched; marketers in Lagos cut petrol depot prices this week, Legit.ng reported.
In November, traders will be watching dollar inflows from oil exports and foreign portfolio investors, the CBN’s next policy signals, and demand pressure ahead of year-end. Earlier in October, Nairametrics had projected the naira would trade between ₦1,290 and ₦1,370 for the month, a range the currency stayed within.
Sources: Nairametrics, The Telegraph Nigeria, WithinNigeria, Legit.ng.